Change and fragmentation: ten global risks 2026
Robert a. Manning
Stimson center strategic vision centre and china project research fellow
Matthew burrows
Adviser to the executive office of the stimson centre and project leader of the strategic vision centre
Foreign policy, january 5, 2026
Introduction
At the beginning of 2026, world politics changed and the international situation remained generally volatile. The international system is still in a long power vacuum, while the competition between states for resources has not diminished; the strength of the global south, the emergence of international mechanisms in various fields and the collapse of an international landscape based on old neoliberal rules; and the emergence of international organizations, transnational corporations, which spill state authority over to more forms of actors. In 2026, the international community entered an unprecedented and restless process of change in many other countries。
The world is approaching a major turning point — and, with the sudden onset of wars, financial crises and natural disasters of all kinds, the “post-cold-war era” will move faster towards the end of a completely new and unknown order that will be shaped by the international community. On the whole, the most striking feature of this change is the trend towards “multipolarity” in the international system. We wonder whether it is possible for the world to build a stable multilateral international system without a future in which hegemonic states exist
Every year since 2017, foreign policy has predicted the greatest threat to the world. In 2026, the ninth forward analysis report, 2026, “top ten global risks for 2026”, will continue with the united states national intelligence committee (natio)Based on the projections of nal information council, the 10 major global risks to be faced in 2026 are projected on the basis of reliable, high-quality information and the level of each risk is assessed。
In 2026, instead of returning to calm as expected, the world accelerated into an unprecedented “power vacuum”. Trump’s return to the white house’s second term is reshaping america’s global role with a series of radical policies, such as “menroism 2. 0” and “depart from world security.” at the same time, the russian-ukrainian war is at an impasse, an artificially intelligent economic bubble coexists with the employment crisis, the collective rise of forces in the global south, the cloud of the third nuclear crisis, and the global system of governance is undergoing a profound “no-man” change. With the formal end of the post-cold-war era, the international landscape based on traditional liberal rules is experiencing a crisis that is about to collapse。
The foreign policy has been issuing a series of “ten risks worldwide” reports since 2017, and the ninth forward analysis report, based on the strategic forecasting framework of the united states national intelligence committee, brings to light the major challenges that the world is likely to face in 2026, combining a multidimensional perspective of geopolitics, economics, science and technology and climate. The following is a deep analysis of the 10 most threatening and alarming risks of the year。
Risk 1: financial crisis and economic distress
Risk level: high risk
The financial value of artificial intelligence is significantly overestimated by the market. The unbridled growth of artificial intelligence has driven 40 per cent of GDP growth and 80 per cent of stock market growth in the united states, but so far, companies trying to use artificial intelligence have not really increased productivity; the collapse of the united states stock market may result in the evaporation of consumer wealth worth $35 trillion; financial markets institutionalize encrypted money, but with very low levels of regulation; and non-bank financial institutions or shadow banks that are not subject to government regulation play an increasingly important role in the financing of businesses and in the national financial system, making it difficult to determine the leverage rate。
Many economists have warned that all the preconditions for economic collapse are in place. This crisis is likely to hit the global financial industry much more than the 2008 economic crisis. It is also unlikely that china and the g-20 will help again; at the same time, the dollar is showing a weak stance in the global currency market, and the dollar will not be able to continue to play its protective role in world markets without measures such as drastic spending cuts and tax increases by the united states government。
Risk ii: disruption of the existing international order
Risk level: high risk
The international community is now in a transition between the free order that is dying today and the future order。
In the transitional period of this new and old order, the world is in a state of “suspect for all”. By launching a war against ukraine, russian president vladimir putin reaffirmed russia's opposing relations with nato; the countries of the global south sought to play a greater role in decision-making in global affairs; and europe seemed to be still mired in the outbreak of the soviet war on a free order, as well as in the trump initiative in the national security strategy to weaken united states security guarantees for europe, forcing europe to step up its arms in response to an insecure international environment。
During the transition to this new and old order, multilateralism is facing a breakdown. The trump government's series of “resorts” stands in stark contrast to the russian-chinese initiative to expand international mechanisms such as the brics. Whether the old order must be destroyed or whether the new order can be successfully established is of utmost concern。
Risk iii: the united states strategic centre facing failure to move to the western hemisphere
Risk level: medium-risk
The united states is trying to establish a united states-led sphere of influence in the western hemisphere. National security strategy report 2026 (natio)In nal security strategy, trump offered his own complement to monroeism and combined it with his threat to mexican drug cartels and regime change in venezuela; next, trump may impose high tariffs and sanctions on colombia and cuba。
But the united states ignores the long history of the western hemisphere, where tariffs, threats, or the means of providing assistance to the countries of the western hemisphere cannot allow time to flow back to the nineteenth century – a time when the united states was monopolistic. More than ever, china understands that economic development is the most fundamental need in latin america. Trade between china and latin america and the caribbean has soared “from $12 billion in 2000 to $315 billion in 2020 and is expected to exceed $700 billion by 2035”. More notably, brazil's trade with china is more than double its trade with the united states。
Under this trend, four years later, most latin american countries will distance themselves from the united states and establish deeper ties with china; if the united states pays too much attention to latin america, it will also ignore its allies elsewhere; and if trump sends troops to venezuela to overthrow president nicolás maduro, the united states will most likely be plunged into an escalating military conflict that will lead to adverse consequences, such as inflation, shortages of food and other necessities, to the detriment of the local poor and middle class. Once maduro had been overthrown, trump did not seem to have any plans to help the venezuelan people cope with the political instability that might arise。
Risk iv: “z generation” issues
Risk level: medium-risk
Z generation, a young group born between 1997 and 2012. This group, which accounts for 20 per cent of the global population, is concentrated in the countries of the global south, particularly in africa, south asia and south-east asia。
The z generation has had an impact on the political situation in some areas. Since 2024, a wave of z-generation protests has swept over many countries, some of them leading to the collapse of the governments of bangladesh, madagascar and nepal, forcing countries such as indonesia, kenya and morocco to abolish unpopular policies; z-generations have also caused political instability and, in tanzania, their protests have triggered brutal repression by local governments。
The z generation is also deeply affected by the political situation in the world today. The gap between the global south and the north in terms of their economic and scientific and technological levels is widening, developed countries ' assistance to the less developed countries has declined significantly, the debt problems of the less developed countries, climate change, food security problems are increasing, and the risks of disease and artificial intelligence development for z generation employment are increasing。
Under these realistic conditions, if governments find ways to enable most of the z generation to gain access to education and jobs, the z generation will contribute to the dynamism of national development; if governments fail to do so, they may lead to serious problems such as poverty, terrorism, disease, civil war and mass migration。
Risk five: the russian-ukrainian conflict strikes at western security. Bureau
Risk level: high risk
After three years of war between russia and ukraine, russia's advantage is increasingly evident. Turning to europe's “nato”-led american-western bloc, which is becoming increasingly weak, and to trump's unwillingness to provide ukraine with more fighting weapons, the russian-ukrainian peace talks have reached a long impasse。
In its recent national security strategy, the united states government targeted europe, predicted that the continent would face “civil destruction” and accused europe of being responsible for ukraine's refusal to cease fire. To date, putin has made no concessions on the armistice agreement at all and has not lowered its terms. In the worst case scenario, trump would be tired of this conflict in europe, which eventually left ukraine to europeans, who were neither able to reverse the situation nor able to influence the russian government. The russian-ukrainian conflict will pose an immeasurable threat to the security landscape that the united states and west have established。
Risk 6: global climate deterioration
Risk level: high risk
Trump called climate change “the greatest fraud ever committed against the world”. Not only did he withdraw the united states from the paris accord of 2015, but he also encouraged others to abandon climate governance and concentrate on fossil fuel development. Within the eu, there are also concerns that meeting its ambitious “reduced-off target by 2040” would increase the already weakened competitiveness of the eu in the economic sphere。
At the united nations climate conference, the target of “climate finance for poor countries at $120 billion a year” was also postponed from the original 2030 to 2035. Climate risks have also increased in many less developed countries, where agricultural production and disease transmission make them highly vulnerable to droughts, floods and extreme temperatures. The world meteorological organization (wmo) predicts that in the five-year period 2025-2029, the probability of an average world temperature rise above 1. 5 degrees celsius is 70 per cent, well above the 47 per cent noted in last year's report, 2024-2028。
Risk vii: the ongoing dangerous situation in the middle east
Risk level: high risk
While the international community generally looked forward to the establishment of the “new middle east east”, two countries, gaza and iran, are likely to re-emerge in 2026. The united states is also caught in both conflicts. Despite the fact that the united states proposed in its national security strategy of 2026 “to reduce the scope of its own interests”, in fact, its influence is deepening in the region。
In the light of the current situation in the middle east region, the first phase of the “gaza ceasefire plan”, designed by trump, has already been hit hard by reality. In the middle and west of the middle east region, israel controls more than half of gaza's territory, while the majority of palestinians live in the ruins of the other half; the goal of establishing a “credible path to palestinian self-determination and statehood” in the gaza peace plan seems to be far from being realized; and the israeli attacks on lebanon and syria have further complicated the situation in the middle east as a whole. In the eastern part of the middle east, iran, which had experienced a five-year drought, was at risk of conflict as the internal political situation became increasingly chaotic owing to poor government economic policy formulation。
Risk eight: artificial intelligence becomes subversive
Risk level: medium-risk
Artificial intelligence may soon lead to the closure of many jobs. In january 2024, an imf analysis concluded that 60 per cent of jobs in developed economies would be affected by artificial intelligence, but that training workers in skills adapted to artificial intelligence development was not given the priority it deserved。
Artificial intelligence development also poses financial risks to the country and is likely to manifest itself in 2026. In 2024, large global technology companies invested more than $400 billion in data centres; this investment is expected to grow significantly to $1. 1 trillion by 2029. However, more and more investments are being made through debt financing, and many ai pilot projects have not yielded the expected returns. A strong contrast between large investments and lack of income raises concerns about the collapse of artificial intelligence bubbles, which may even exceed the effects of the 2000 internet bubble。
Risk nine: the volatile asia-pacific region
Risk level: medium-risk
Trump's tariff policy and china's excess manufacturing capacity pose a double threat to the asian economy, undermining the production landscape in south and south-east asia based on the “china+1” strategy (i. E. Investors move factories out of china but still use chinese spare parts). The tariff agreement signed between trump and four asean members has yet to identify the starting points for the value-added tax (vat) levied by the four asean countries as processing countries of chinese origin, but once the united states standard is too low, the economies of the four asean countries will suffer further damage。
The region of south asia is in a state of strife. Whether it be the ongoing disputes in kashmir, the threat of terrorism faced by pakistan — the taliban movement (tehrik-i-taliban pakistan), or afghan problems and water disputes — the south asian region is at risk of a resurgence of violent regional conflicts。
Risk 10: the third nuclear age
Risk level: medium-risk
Following the first nuclear era (the us-soviet arms race in the cold war), the second nuclear era (the us nuclear non-proliferation era of two decades after the end of the cold war), and the development of united states artificial intelligence, offensive cyber and anti-satellite weapons, the world is now moving towards the third nuclear age, not only with the development of the cold war nuclear balance, but also with the post-cold-war commitment to reduce more than 80 per cent of the nuclear arms control agreement between the united states and russia, as well as with the collapse of the new start treaty, which expires in february this year, which means the failure of the last nuclear disarmament gate between the united states and russia。
Although the major nuclear powers have not conducted nuclear-weapon tests since 1996, trump has ordered new united states nuclear tests if other countries, such as russia and china, do so. Nuclear proliferation was also a major feature of the third nuclear era. In addition to the major nuclear powers, countries with weak nuclear capabilities, such as the democratic people's republic of korea and iran, have also developed their missile and nuclear forces on a large scale, and nuclear competition between india and pakistan continues。
Translator: hu boo, editor of national political science, zhou enlai school of government, university of south africa。
Source: robert a. Manning and mathew burrows, “top ten global risks for 2026”, foreign policy, published online: january 5, 2026
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