In the event that cities on the 2nd and 3rd line are cancelled or untying, the first line of cities are expected to become “final bastions” of the city's limited purchase policy。
After beijing and shanghai, guangzhou officials have recently stated that they will not relax the restrictions. Despite the absence of official statements from shenzhen, a number of local observers have indicated that it is unlikely that shenzhen will ease the restrictions in the short term。
Beyond the front-line cities, however, there is a growing trend towards “exit” restrictions. This week alone, ishikoshi, hangzhou, wenzhou, ningbo and qingdao were untied. A number of practitioners expect a total of 40 cities to be decentralized to varying degrees during the year。
According to zhang daewei, the chief market analyst of china's real estate, in the future, there will be a marked differentiation in the policy of limiting purchases: cities with economies in second-line cities and cities in third-line cities will be completely eliminated like hott; cities with better economies in second-line cities, such as xiamen, nanjing and wuhan, may continue to be restricted, but partially eased at the executive level; and first-line cities will continue to be restricted because of the need to control their population and the low dependence of economic development on real estate。
Qin, director of the policy research centre of the ministry of housing and construction, had previously indicated to the first financial journal that in cities where previously limited purchases had been made, there had indeed been excessive demand for buildings, and that it was of little interest for those cities to insist on limiting purchases. In that context, the state had proposed a classification and regulation approach, and whether untying or lifting of the restrictions should be tailored to the local context. “but i am personally firmly opposed to the unbound and unconditioned easing of purchases in some central cities.”
First-line cities don't untie in the short term
In a regular press conference held on 31 july, the deputy governor of guangzhou, chen yu gui, reported that sales had fallen by 28 per cent in january to june. However, in his view, the guangzhou real estate market remains healthy and stable at the present time, with “a strong purchasing power in demand”
In recent times, the “de-coupling” of cities on the 2nd and 3rd line has been like the dominos, and guangzhou has once heard news of the de-coupling of outlying areas such as the southern sand. In response, chen rui gui indicated that guangzhou would strictly enforce its national policy and that the city-wide procurement restrictions had not been relaxed. Guangzhou will strengthen its surveillance of the building market so as not to allow it to grow too fast。
According to li wenjiang, the chief market analyst of zhang fu-sung (china), like guangzhou, there will be no lifting of the restrictions this year, because once liberalized, the prices of houses in guangzhou will rise sharply。
In fact, prior to guangzhou, beijing and shanghai had spoken first and foremost。
“beijing will not easily introduce a new real estate policy.” in the first half of the recent economic situation analysis meeting, mayor wang anshun of beijing stated that beijing would not easily relax measures such as restrictions on purchases, which would weaken the momentum of structural adjustment and affect sustainable urban development。
On the evening of 17 july, the official zohang zai weibo published a tweet entitled " shanghai-limited purchases loose: a new policy reading! " , which clearly indicates signs of a relaxation in the implementation of the real estate limitation policy in the huangpo and tsui districts of shanghai. However, the following day, the shanghai city press spokesman, xu wei, immediately stated that shanghai had been strictly enforcing the country's real estate restrictions and that there was no easing of the restrictions。
Outside the north, only shenzhen, in the first-line city, has not yet made an official statement. However, a number of practitioners have indicated to the daily first financial journal that the restrictions on the purchase of shenzhen have been difficult to untie in the short term。
Shenzhen's property analysts have said to journalists that, on the one hand, the shenzhen market since this year has only been weaker than last year, but has not reached a very critical point; on the other hand, shenzhen's dependence on land finances is very low, and shenzhen would not be as anxious as the cities on the 2nd and 3rd line if it were to go down。
Despite the stock backlog caused by the slowdown, the shenzhen centre for research in shenzhen believes that, unlike other cities, shenzhen's demand has been strong, supply and demand tensions remain prominent, the possibility of deregulation in the short term is minimal, the air environment is expected to be difficult to improve in the second half of the year, prices will accelerate downwards, and trade volumes will remain low。
Even shenzhen media quoted local observers as saying that the first-line city was the bottom line of the restriction, that there was no incentive to lift the restriction, and that if there was one day, shenzhen should be the last。
“the will to relax in the first-line cities is certainly not too strong.” according to zhang, in the first half of the year, despite the colding of the land market, land in front-line cities was sold well, and although the market had declined by 30 per cent, the impact on taxes and fees was not significant and would not be relaxed at the present time。
Researchers at the shanghai institute for eviction real estates have jumped to the point that, in recent years, the absence of regulation of restrictive purchasing policies in front of the front-line cities may have led to the emergence of a highly speculative market; therefore, despite the pressure of the current trade-off downturn, there is still room for the restrictive policies to continue to work, given the soundness of the industry in such cities and the fact that they do not rush to save the city because of the temperature in the buildings。
However, some observers have also indicated that, if the overall downward pressure on the economy is high by the fourth quarter, it is not precluded that local areas and local types of housing are also available in front-line cities。
Zhejiang dodo has recently untied
Since the beginning of the year, especially in the second half of the year, the liberalization of the purchase restrictions has taken place throughout the country, following the lifting of the purchase restrictions by both houthi hott and chinan。
On 28 july, the market for luxury houses in the main urban area rose in an instant when hangzhou was ordered to ease the purchase restrictions. “as soon as possible, some developers have chosen to adjust downwards and hold their intended customers in their hands.” according to local developers in hangzhou to journalists, clients of interest are now well-defined and easy to settle。
On the day of the release, the sale of a high-end building in hangzhou amounted to $160 million. On 30 july, the opening of a building in the village of leung culture was immediately looted in one hour, making it the first day of the 2014 cd-rom, and the scene of the fire was visible。
On 29 july, wenzhou followed closely and fully liberalized the purchase restrictions as of that date. The wnc also indicated that it would actively seek the support of financial institutions in the implementation of first-rate loans. Also on 30 july, the city of wenzhou convened a symposium on the theme “financial support for real estate”。
It appears that both brother cities in zhejiang have broken free of the restrictions on purchase and that ningbo is no longer stable. On 30 july, at 1530 hours, the official weibo of the ningbo house construction commission officially announced the untying of the purchase restrictions, with the exception of commercial houses of less than 90 square metres in the third quarter。
It is worth noting that the cities in zhejiang, where there were previously restricted purchases, include hangzhou, wenzhou, ningbo, atoyama, shao xing, taizhou, atoyama, etc., are also among the provinces with the most restricted purchases。
"hangzhou first, and some rich people in the province will come to hangzhou to buy a house." this is also, according to developers, a reason for much more recent household movements. However, at the operational level, the remaining cities have been untied and are now waiting for policy。
The latest case of untiement is qingdao outside zhejiang. On 31 july, official sources from the city of qingdao indicated that, as of 00000 hours on 1 august 2014, there had been a total elimination of the purchase restrictions in the huangtao, yangtao and gao xinxing districts of qingdao city and a total elimination of the 140 square metres and above。
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This is also the fifth free-buying city since the week, followed by shijia, hangzhou, wenzhou and ningbo。
According to statistics from the ministry of research on china's real estates, to date, there are 30 municipalities with varying degrees of relaxation in the area of restricted purchases, representing 65 per cent of all 46 cities with restricted purchases。
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