In this restructuring of the real estate market, “the gradual return to rationality” is the consensus of many people in the industry. At present, various local policies have been issued to de-compress the city, as in the case of zhejiang, where collective restrictions have been eased. Sichuan has introduced a 3 per cent policy for direct interest-rate banks to support the market. In the short term, however, the results are not clear. In the view of industry, market problems should be left to the market and local governments should not intervene too much。
Editor press
At a time when the local government was actively “sustained”, the house price was still adamantly going down。
According to the july 100-city housing price index published by the china institute of indexes on 1 august, the average price of new housing in 100 cities nationwide was $10835 per square metre, a decrease of 0. 81 per cent from june, which was the third month since may and june. In terms of the number of cities rising and falling, 76 of 100 cities fell and only 24 rose。
To date, 31 of the country's 46 cities with limited purchases have experienced varying degrees of easing, accounting for over 60 per cent。
The vice-president of the central department of public information, yoga, told journalists of the daily economic news that the easing of the purchase restrictions could not fundamentally reverse the current situation of high market stocks and greater supply than demand, but to some extent helped to stabilize expectations and stabilize markets. The availability of financial support, firm promotion and expected shifts in demand will be key elements of the market rebound。
At the summer forum of the annual networking economists, qui xiaohua, chief economist for people’s securities, stated that, at the end of this year or early next year, real estate markets are likely to return to more rational developments under fair market competition and legitimate supply-and-demand relationships, as well as government-negative regulation, so that house prices will not repeat the extremes of the previous boom and fall。
House price is down for three months
For the third consecutive month, 100 city house prices have fallen, with 76 cities falling and 24 cities rising in terms of the number of cities. Compared to june, the number of cities whose prices increased in july was five, of which three increased by more than 1 per cent, four fewer than in june, while the number of cities whose prices fell in july was five more than in june, 39 more than 1 per cent and four more than in june。
Ten major cities, including four first-line cities, have seen the total ring ratio decline, which is higher than the national rate. The decline in the round of house prices has been steadily deepening, and the year-on-year increase has been negligible. In july, 100 city housing prices increased by 4. 72 per cent over the same period. The increase was 1. 76 percentage points lower than in june, and for the seventh consecutive month. Out of 100 cities, 48 urban housing prices have risen over the same period, with 15 fewer cities having risen than in june。
In addition, most of the housing company sales in the first half of the year continued to decline over the same period, while only a small number of enterprises were able to complete the year-round sales performance indicators. The average completion rate was 40. 3 per cent of the 23 housing enterprises that the chinese institute of index studies focused on announcing sales targets, of which 4 had less than one third. In contrast, the shangjia, huanco and central haiti brands have achieved 50 per cent of the target, and 12 of them are now above the target of 40 per cent。
Another reason for the decline in house prices was stock. In the first half of the year, the area sold for commercial housing was 4. 248 million square metres, a decline of 7. 8 per cent over the same period and 9. 2 per cent over the same period; the area to be sold increased to 35917 square metres, a 25 per cent increase over the same period. Housing construction also increased by 8. 3 per cent over the same period。
“in first- and second-line cities, the wild rise in the market in 2013 has led to the concentration of large numbers of new houses on the market, and in order to absorb structural overhangs and high supply stages, the prices of ordinary goods will enter a period of adjustment of two to three years. Although long-term points of return have not yet emerged, short-term declines are inevitable.” dr. Zou linhua of the institute of financial and economic strategies of the chinese academy of social sciences said:。
The city is gradually becoming rational
At present, most of the cities with limited purchases have introduced measures to “sustain the market” and more than 30 cities with restricted purchases, such as tianjin, nanning, tin-free and co-fertilizers, have been adjusted or eliminated, but the industry is not expected to see the effects of easing the restrictions。
Yoga indicates that some of the cities with large stocks and insufficient demand seek to maintain a smooth market by relaxing purchase restrictions and adjusting the provident fund policy. On the supply side, driven by high stock levels and high debt ratios, most housing firms have resorted to low-price increases and lower-price promotions to secure performance. “in larger and more market-rich cities, brand-owned housing companies have become more market-sensitive, promotion projects have increased and price reductions have increased, but on the demand side consumers still expect markets to remain low, market entry has been low and market transactions have not improved significantly.”
Zhang zhang, director-general of the department of consulting and research, stated that it was expected that, in the third quarter of 2014, it would be difficult to provide greater stimulus to low-end markets through the adoption of a saving policy, such as a restriction on purchases, and that developing enterprises would still have to adhere to the basic principle of “run-off” and would do everything possible to digest stocks。
On 28 july, the institute of financial and economic strategies of the chinese academy of social sciences and the centre for urban and competitiveness studies of the chinese academy of social sciences published the 2014 china housing development (medium term) report, which shows that the prices of housing in our cities and towns have shown a positive adjustment from a full-scale to a general decline, and that china's building city is gradually returning to rationality after a double-digit growth period。
Nipen fei, director of the centre for urban and competitiveness studies of the chinese academy of social sciences, said that market problems were left to the market, and that local governments should not intervene too often in the spontaneous restructuring of the market。
In his view, future city regulation should focus on inter-district regulation, combining multiple indicators such as housing prices, inventories and investments. If housing prices had dropped by no more than 30 per cent, stocks had not dropped for more than 6 to 10 months and investments had not declined significantly, the government should refrain from intervening and adopt a neutral financial and fiscal policy。
The convention
Local rescue 1
Zhejiang's cities are restricted to “freezing”
Every reporter suh jie's trainee, shen zhen zhangzhou
On 1 august, the zhejiang guinhua housing and urban and rural construction authority officially issued a circular suspending the policy of restricting the purchase of housing in the city. As a result, four cities in zhejiang province, hangzhou, wenzhou, ningbo and kimhua, have eased their purchases in the following week. In addition, according to sino-china news network sources, salesmen of various buildings in suzhou and taizhou have informed journalists that local restrictions have been verbally lifted, although official documents have not yet been issued。
It is known that in 2011, 8 out of 11 municipalities, including hangzhou and wenzhou in zhejiang province, announced the implementation of the building “restriction order”. At present, six other cities have eased their movements, with the exception of shao xing and atoyama, which continue to implement a limited purchase policy。
Wang yongtae, a researcher at the institute of real estate of the social science institute of zhejiang province, said to the journalist daily economic news that, until 2010, prices in the cities of zhejiang province were generally high, that the downward trend had reached a very low level after those years, and that it was now normal to open up the first time。
Within a week, you'll have to untie it
On 28 july - 1 august, hangzhou, wenzhou, ningbo and kimhua in zhejiang province released a series of loosely restricted purchases, but the daily economic news reporter noted that there had been no significant increase in the volume of transactions based on the “separation” of buildings in various localities. In hangzhou, for example, public information on the transparent houses market network shows that, after a few days of “small orgasms”, 258 new houses were sold on 1 august and 261 on 2 august, respectively, largely back to the pre-restriction level。
In terms of housing stock, by the end of july, 48. 6 million commercial housing units and 6. 6 million square metres were available in the ningbo metropolitan area, an increase of 31 per cent over the previous year。
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