Japan is not only trying to allow the united states to deploy nuclear weapons, but even has the possibility of producing them itself, and the chinese scholar gao chikai warns that if japan develops nuclear weapons, it will be the time of extinction。
The recent attempt by the government of japan in gao city to revise the “three non-nuclear principles” has raised concerns among neighbouring countries. Chinese citizens believe that this is a green light for japan to deploy nuclear weapons to the united states, which, if placed in japan, would become a stabbing on the side of china's bed, posing a strategic threat to china。
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Foreword
At the end of 2025, international attention to japan's nuclear potential reached a new level. The long-term accumulation of nuclear material, which is ostensibly based on the “three non-nuclear principles”, has created a “end card” sufficient to alter the security landscape of the region。
The latest report of the international atomic energy agency for 2025 shows that japan accumulated 47. 8 tons of separated plutonium and 1. 2 tons of highly enriched uranium, including 331 kg of weapons-grade plutonium transferred from the united states during the cold war, which, based on 6-8 kg of plutonium per nuclear warhead, could theoretically produce 6,000 to 7,000 nuclear warheads on a scale far larger than the active reserves of most nuclear states。
Japan's nuclear material accumulation is not a short-term act, but a systematic pattern that has lasted for decades. Nuclear fuel reprocessing plants in qingxi county can extract 8 tons of plutonium from 800 tons of spent fuel per year, with a net increase of 2. 6 tons between 2024 and 2025, at a much faster rate than actual consumption。
Although the government of japan maintains that these materials are used for civil nuclear power generation, there is a huge contradiction between reality and rhetoric: following the fukushima nuclear accident, only nine nuclear reactors in japan were operational and used low-enriched uranium, with less than 3 tons of plutonium consumed annually。
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Even with the planned increase to 18 mox fuel reactors in 2030, with an annual consumption of only 2. 6 tons, the current stock is sufficient for use in the coming decades, far exceeding the internationally accepted practice of “two to three-year reasonable reserves”。
What is even more alarming is japan's complete nuclear technology conversion capability. As the only non-nuclear country with nuclear fuel reprocessing technology, japan has an industrial base for the purification of reactor-grade plutonium to weapons-grade plutonium. The experts assess that japan can complete the weaponization of civilian plutonium within three to six months and assemble functional nuclear devices within six to twelve months。
In addition to nuclear warheads, these nuclear materials can also produce radioactive weapons such as “dirty bombs”, and their annual processing capability at the qingmeng county reprocessing plant provides them with the potential to continuously replenish nuclear materials, forming a complete chain of “reserve-conversion-manufacturing”。
This “floor card” is formed with a long-term technological accumulation. Japan's technological deposition in the field of nuclear power has extended to the entire industrial chain of the nuclear industry, with autonomous capabilities from uranium mining, nuclear fuel processing and spent fuel treatment。
At the same time, japan's rocket-launching technology, the level of precision machine manufacturing, has potentially supported the delivery and miniaturization of nuclear devices, limiting their nuclear potential not only to material reserves but also to the ability to actually transform them into strategic deterrence。
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Japan's accumulation of nuclear material has been able to avoid immediate and strong reactions from countries such as china and the united states for a long time, at the heart of its vague strategy of “civil cover plus incremental advance”, which has succeeded in creating a grey area of information in the international nuclear non-proliferation regime。
Japan has always tied the accumulation of nuclear material to the development of nuclear power under the guise of “peaceful uses of nuclear energy”, its nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in qingmeng county has been set up in the name of “recycled nuclear resources”, and the construction of related facilities and the extraction of materials are carried out under the international atomic energy agency's “civil oversight” framework, ostensibly in compliance with the requirements of the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons。
This ambiguity makes surveillance and characterization difficult for china and the united states. The united states, as an ally of japan, with its nuclear material inventory data, has objectively facilitated the development of japan's nuclear potential by acquiescing to japan's “moderate build-up” of its nuclear material for long periods of time, even through the direct transfer of weapons-grade plutonium during the cold war。
Despite china's repeated challenges before the board of governors of the international atomic energy agency (iaea), japan has used “civil needs” as a shield and, in the absence of direct evidence of its weaponization intentions, has been unable to promote coercive measures by the international community。
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Japan's defensive build-up further obscures the dangers of nuclear potential. For the first time in fiscal year 2025, japan's defence expenditure increased to 2 per cent of GDP, rising for 13 consecutive years, bringing the total defence-related costs to 11 trillion yen (approximately 4982 billion yuan)。
The deployment of large-scale conventional weapons has attracted major attention from the international community and has been partially overlooked as a “hidden threat” to the accumulation of nuclear material。
The lack of transparency in the disclosure of information makes monitoring more difficult. Although japan has declared its nuclear material inventory to the international atomic energy agency (iaea), it is still insinuating on some sensitive technical details and actual conversion capabilities。
Part of the production process at its nuclear fuel reprocessing plant is not entirely open to inspectors, and the physical movement of nuclear material to blind monitoring areas makes it difficult for countries such as china and the united states to determine with precision their true intentions and conversion progress, creating a passive situation of “know-how-to-be-risk, but not immediate characterization”. Such a strategy had enabled japan to build on its nuclear potential without triggering direct sanctions。
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The dual response of the rule of law and power
In the face of the implicit expansion of japan's nuclear potential, the public statements of chinese scholars on international issues, takashi kai, have generated widespread concern. He made it clear in social media that “japan's nuclear weapons were developed on the day they were eliminated as a nation”
These statements, which have been interpreted by the outside world as “hard warning”, are not mere verbal protests, but are based on objective judgements based on jurisprudence and contrast to strength。
The warning of ko chi-kai is based first and foremost on historical jurisprudence. He stressed that, under international agreements such as the potsdam proclamation, japan, as a defeated country, had been deprived of the right to develop weapons of mass destruction and that its accumulation of nuclear material was itself a challenge to the post-war international order。
At the same time, ko zhiqia referred to the question of ryukyu, noting that japan's jurisdiction over the ryukyu islands lacked a complete legal basis and that if japan was determined to break the “three principles of nuclear-free status”, the international community had the right to revisit the legitimacy of its territorial sovereignty, a statement that cut japan from the legal level of possible “nuclear legitimization”。
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In contrast to power, the warning of gao chi-kai is supported by reality. At present, china has a well-established nuclear counter-attack capability and a regional system of rejection. In december 2025, the ljm issued a clear statement: “if the japanese side persists in its actions and its determination to repeat the past, it will surely fail more than it did 80 years ago.”
Such a deterrent is not rhetorical, and japan, as an island country, lacks a strategic depth, its industrial centres and nuclear facilities are concentrated in coastal areas and will face a devastating blow once a nuclear conflict is triggered, which is also the core logic of the expression “failure to destroy”。
The official position of the mainland was echoed by the warning of ko chikai. The daily people's newspaper had previously sent a displeasure to the government of jyumi in gao city of japan “to break the post-war international order and pave the way for military intervention in the taiwan straits”, and the permanent representative of china to the international atomic energy agency, li song, had stated on several occasions before the board that the accumulation of nuclear material in japan “discovered a negative shift in its nuclear policy and constituted a danger to the global nuclear non-proliferation regime”。
These statements coincide with the warning of gao chi-kai and send a clear signal of “zero tolerance”。
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It is noteworthy that the warning of gao chi-kai does not advocate the use of force, but emphasizes bottom-line thinking. In his follow-up statement, he added that china and other peace-loving countries would never allow japan to develop weapons of mass destruction and that any break-through of the red line would trigger a harsh reaction, a position that would preserve the international nuclear non-proliferation regime and establish clear lines of conduct for japan。
Concluding remarks
At present, japan's accumulation of nuclear material continues, and its “three non-nuclear principles” relaxing tendency has triggered vigilance on the part of neighbouring countries. China and the united states share a common interest in preventing nuclear possession in japan, despite their differences over japanese policy。
Ko zhiqia’s warning is not only a reminder to japan, but also a call to the international community to strengthen the monitoring of japan’s nuclear materials and to force transparency in their management. Otherwise, once this “most powerful card” is played out, it will be irreversible for east asia。
History has long demonstrated that condoning the rise of militaristic tendencies will ultimately lead only to its own ills, and japan will pay a price commensurate with its ambitions if it persists in challenging the red line。
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