The analysis found that as antimonopoly investigations continued to ferment, consumer sentiment persisted. The stock index of imported vehicles reached 3. 4 months in july of this year, reaching a new high in the year, owing to the inversion of demand and supply. If the speed of supply is still not adjusted, this will undoubtedly lead to a further increase in the depth of stocks in the importing industry and, consequently, to an increase in the pressure on distributors, with the possibility of reverting to the high stock levels in the importing market in the second half of 2012。
The impact of antimonopoly on the import vehicle market has begun to appear。
In recent days, data from national motor vehicles (600335, sh) show that the increase in sales on our import market in july was significantly slower, at only 10 per cent. This figure was as high as 25. 9 per cent in may of this year。
In response, wang, senior manager of the ministry of national motor and motor markets, interviewed a journalist for daily economy news, said: “there is a feeling of currency-holding waiting because of the persistence of anti-monopoly investigations on cars, the lowering of the price of whole cars and spare parts in a number of enterprises and the perception by consumers that more businesses will follow up”
At the same time, the supply of imported vehicles is rising even further, to record highs. Data from the chinese imported automobile market database show that customs imports reached 137,400 in july this year, a new peak in single-month vehicle imports in recent years。
The stock of imported vehicles began to climb in july this year, with an inventory index of nearly 3. 4, not only reaching its highest level since this year, but also becoming the only single-month stock since last year that exceeds last year's。
Increase in sales of imported vehicles in july
Starting in the second half of this year, the anti-monopoly storm began to engulf the automobile sector. In early july, the commission began investigating monopolistic acts in the area of automobiles. Shortly after, the president and chief executive officer of mercedes-benz motors sales services ltd., beijing, nécé, said that mercedes had been interviewed by the cdrc and “did not think that mercedes would be the subject of an antimonopoly investigation”。
At the same time, the ministry of transport, the general directorate of state commerce and industry and the general directorate of state quality inspection have issued or are planning to issue regulations aimed at weakening the control position of automobile-producing enterprises in the area of automobiles and eventually overcoming the root causes of monopolistic behaviour。
It is a matter of concern that, in response to the anti-monopoly investigation, the jaguar rover first announced at the end of july a reduction in the price of several car types, including the range rover, by an average of $200,000; one day later, one steam, popular audi, also announced a 20 per cent reduction in the price of domestic parts。
Firms compete for lower prices for their products, leading many consumers to believe that in the future more automobile brands will join the downside, while the prices of imported vehicles and maintenance will likely be lower. “finally, it leads to the holding of currency by consumers, which in part affects the performance of the import vehicle market.” according to wang qi。
According to data published by the national motor vehicles, the volume of imports increased by only 10 per cent in july, compared to 25. 9 per cent in the import market in the first five months of the year。
In terms of brand sales, the biggest bmw imported in july sold 11,000 vehicles, down 21. 43 per cent from 14,000 in june。
For this reason, wang qun argued that “the decline in the ring ratio is normal, mainly due to consumption seasonality, as july is the traditional sales season of the car market, but the decline in the sales of the ring by audi and rover is much greater than the average decline in the market may be influenced by antimonopoly investigations”
In july, the volume of audi imported vehicles was only about 5,700, a decline of 25. 97 per cent compared to around 7,700 in june, and 6,600 in july, a decline of 26. 67 per cent in the ring, both of which were significantly higher than the 12. 5 per cent decline in the overall market。
In august, mercedes, bmw, chrysler, hiroyo toyota and hiroyo honda followed up on the reduction in the price of spare parts, but failed to prevent the issuance of anti-monopoly tickets, and four bmw dealers were fined $1. 62 million; on 17 august, the jiangsu provincial price office established the anti-monopoly act of mercedes。
Wang qun indicated that the impact of the progress of the antimonopoly investigation on the import market required further judgement. In the long run, the downward adjustment in the price of spare parts is positive for market sales and reduces the cost of consumer use。
Demand supply back-to-back high stock/
At a time when demand for imported cars began to slow down, customs imports were again high。
Data from the chinese imported automobile market database show that customs imports in july of this year amounted to 1,374,000 cars, an increase of 24. 6 per cent over the same period; cumulative imports in january-july amounted to 818,400 vehicles, an increase of 28. 5 per cent over the same period。
According to the national motor vehicles, the continued growth of imports in july was mainly due to market inertia; the higher import targets set by the producers to meet market demand, as a result of the significant increase in final sales in the first half of the year; and the new car effect was one of the important reasons for stimulating import growth。
Following the listing of the porsche macan in july this year, the terminal performed more optimisticly and its imports increased. The data show that 5,200 vehicles were imported in july, an increase of 15. 56 per cent over the 4,500 vehicles in june. The new bmw x4, which was listed in july, also brought the volume of imports to 2,000 in july owing to pre-market production requirements. This car led to the import of 196,000 bmws in july, which has reached a new high since the beginning of the year, ranking first in the single import brand。
Since bmw x4 and porsche macan are both suv models, the volume and share of suv-type imports have also increased, respectively, to 64. 6 per cent of total imports in july, well above cars and mpvs (30. 8 per cent and mpv 4. 5 per cent)。
According to data from the china imported automobile market database, imports in july amounted to 136,300 vehicles, an increase of 25. 1 per cent over the same period; of these, 42,000 cars and 6,100 vehicles of the mpv type were imported, an increase of 24. 6 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, over the same period; and 88,000 vehicles of the suv type were imported, an increase of 26 per cent over the same period。
As a result of the reversal of demand and supply, the stock index of imported vehicles reached 3. 4 months in july of this year, not only reaching its highest level since this year, but also making it the first time that a single-month stockpile exceeded last year's month. Under stock pressure, the margin of preference for vehicles imported in july continued to increase in comparison with june, reaching 7. 5 per cent。
The analysis found that as antimonopoly investigations continued to ferment, consumer sentiment persisted. If the speed of supply is still not adjusted, this will undoubtedly lead to a further increase in the depth of stocks in the importing industry and, consequently, to an increase in the pressure on distributors, with the possibility of reverting to the high stock levels in the importing market in the second half of 2012。
Responsible editor: zhang dei
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