On 18 august, the national institute of statistics published a change in the prices of housing in 70 large and medium cities in july, with prices falling in the four largest cities in the north, following a convergence of views among economists as to whether or not there are “closures” in the housing market: the window for deep-seated adjustments in the real estate market in china has opened and the “new normal” in the building market will appear。
However, since the city's cooling down, the noises of “salvation”, “breathing”, “salvation” have become sore that the city's “very” interests, such as the local government, the fireman and others, are in fact the collective agitated that the developers and homeowners, who are supposed to be the “principal” of the building, have become more subdued and rational, and this strange reflection is the malformation of the chinese building city and its pathologies。
The "save the city" sounds and the local government is moving
Falling, falling and falling, housing prices continue to fall; untied, untied, untied, changsha, foshan, harbin ... The number of cities that have liberalized their purchases has increased。
The sudden reversal of the real estate market since the beginning of the year was unexpected for the entire industry. Eleven of the 17 second-line cities that managed the upgrade at the end of last year registered a reduction of more than 25 per cent this year, with significant policy implications。
The “classification regulation for different cities” proposed in early march will be the best note that central government will take on real estate policy this year. In the face of downward pressure on the real estate market, various local government fine-tuning policies continue to be pursued, mainly in the areas of easing restrictions on purchases, limiting prices, expanding financial support for home purchases and adjusting household registration policies. The high level of inventories and the availability of and demand for markets, on the other hand, form the key basis for classification regulation。
In the recent past, there have been frequent reports of deregulating real estate throughout the country, sending strong local government rescue signals. According to incomplete statistics, 37 of the 46 municipalities implementing the limited purchase policy have introduced measures to limit the untying of purchases, and in some cases there have been signs of the “detification” of loans。
In guangdong, the city of foshan, known as the “gang buddha-song city”, was the first to open up the purchase restrictions. Despite guangdong's insistence that the first-line city would not relax, the opening of the city of foshan could in fact be seen as a prelude to wide and deep liberalization. In fact, starting in may this year, guangzhou has undertaken a number of “tweeting” measures to lower the profile of the city. In shanghai, there are rumours that the construction in shanghai will ease the lending restrictions and, although not yet confirmed, the industry believes that this is precisely the prelude to shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shanghai-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-sung-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-sung-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-shang-sung-shang-shang-sung-shang-sung-sing-shang-sung-sung-shang-suk-sung-sung-sung-sung-sung-sung-shang- there are also signs of “conditional decomposition” of some bank mortgages in beijing。
In response to the continuing liberalization of purchases in many cities, industry has pointed to the need to prevent individual regions from breaking the policy line in the name of autonomous regulation, or even from “localized” to “full liberalization”. Executive director weiss and head of china's regional research department, chen zhang wei, warned that local governments would face increasing pressure to “suspension” because of the continued high dependency on land concessions and the rising pressure on local governments to fall prices and freeze the city。
The “floating tide” of the real estate market has raised a high level of public opinion. A number of netizens and experts believe that real estate regulation is at a critical stage and that governments should properly manage the art and rhythm of regulation, manage the relationship between local economies and human security and guide expectations in a rational manner, otherwise years of regulation will be undermined。
“what really needs to be avoided is that targeted easing becomes a general relaxation, and that some businesses and governments are currently blowing the wind, advocating that saving the city is the alternative to boosting the economy and steady growth, and that, once credit is eased, it will not only lead to the loss of all previous efforts, but will also lead to the re-entry of shadow banks, with dire consequences.” chen xuan, executive director of china's real estate data institute, said that it was not crucial to avoid a re-emergence of the 2009 retaliatory rebound in house prices, since the main contradiction in the current round of price adjustments was the regulation of supply and demand markets, and the lifting of restrictions in the remaining cities did not “fall down” except in cities where supply and demand relations were still distorted in the north。
Relevant sources at the policy research centre of the ministry of housing and construction have stated that the implementation of a classification regulation policy should be based on two considerations: whether focusing on groups in demand for hard housing would cause large regional price fluctuations. While local authorities have the power to regulate themselves, easing restrictions on purchases cannot be used as a means of stimulating the market for short-term economic growth。
“if some cities are allowed to take advantage of the `spoiling of fish' and unsubstantiated restrictions on purchases, this would be tantamount to returning investors who have left the field and stimulating speculative demand for investment, which would inevitably lead to new problems. Many cities, despite stock pressure, have brought investors back to buy homes to digest stocks for the purposes of regulation, and governments should not go back to the old ways.”
The "breeding" re-emergence of the market firers sounded alarms
Recently, there have been cases of “discards” in zhejiang, jiangsu and fujian. The purchaser stopped paying mortgage loans and dumped the shrinking properties to the bank. According to a reporter's survey, the situation in hangzhou of “discharged houses” was largely due to the tight availability of funds to purchase houses and the inability to continue to repay loans, which was mostly attributed to the group of firefighters。
The head of the risk management department of a state-owned bank in zhejiang stated that the firefighters were affected by the continued downsliding of the building, that the ownership of the property was difficult to realize and “set up” and that the financial constraints were more common, and that when they were unable to repay the loan and “offloading” had no chance of doing so, they were exposed to the risk of a loss。
In wenzhou, where housing prices fell by 34 months, there are currently 41 cases of “disposal” on mortgage loans, while the number of “disposal” on commodity mortgages (screwrs) is almost 1,000。
Industry sources indicate that, while there is no evidence of a further spread of “discharge”, as the market continues to decline, especially in some areas affected by the “breeding” of the building, the inability to repay the loan is likely to increase。
The chief commentator of the fast house network, cheng wei ming, believes that, in the current situation, “dismissal” is the cause and “disposal” is the result. This suggests that during the downstairs period, individual mortgage loans that were originally considered “quality assets” may imply an undetected risk。
According to the analysis, some of the regional housing prices fell significantly, affecting investors ' willingness to repay their loans. Prior to this, a number of commercial banks failed to verify the credit eligibility of buyers and even acquiesced in the falsification of their income status, as well as in assessing the true credit capacity of buyers。
The head of the personal finance department of a joint-stock bank in hangzhou stated that, during the increase in the price of the house, the inability of individuals to repay the house could relieve the pressure by selling the house, while the risk of investment began to increase when the market turned down, when the house became difficult to pay, and even when it shrunk. According to industry sources, the phenomenon of “dismissal of homes” is a wake-up call for investors, especially those who fire houses。
Financial and economic commentator yeh jun stated that, while the properties are still a less risky and more profitable type of loan, “discards” have made “credit cracks” visible and that once banks become “landlords”, ownership of book assets that cannot be converted to cash will spill over to the credit market as a whole。
A financial regulator told journalists that “discharge” increases the risk of poor mortgages in the financial system and that “bank credit quality is highly correlated with the quality of real estate credit, and commercial banks may no longer treat mortgages as good loans in the future”
While there are no further indications that “discharge” will become widespread, there is a perception in the banking sector that there is an increase in the rate and amount of overdue mortgages on real estate, with the second half of the year focusing on the prevention of such risks. The crediting authorities of various banks have made it clear that they will strengthen monitoring and strictly approve applications for mortgages。
This trend has undoubtedly been a major blow to local governments that are looking to “loan” to save the city, and may also have injured new buyers. Moody's analyst, liang state, stated: “unless there is an increase in the availability of bank credit and a decline in mortgage lending rates, it is unlikely that even the lifting of the restrictive purchase policy in some cities will stimulate a substantial increase in demand.”
In shanghai, journalists visited several banks and found that the current high cost of taking deposits from banks and the low credit balance on mortgages remained tight。
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