Have you ever had a chance to rush into the market with an "albright golden fork buy, dead fork sell" device that either buys at the height of a fake breakthrough or sells at the lower of a trend? The old stockholders used to say, “the path is simple”, but “simple” is not the strategy itself, but the core rule that condenses complex market logic into a ready-to-defeate core — and “one average slope”, which i rely on as a “ceiling tool” in the market for more than a decade。
Average slope: trend “thermometers” ignored by the majority
Many people look at the horizon, looking only at the "direction" — up is multiple, down is empty. But what really determines whether you can make money is the “intensity” of the trend: it's also the average line up, or the “slide up”, or the “spread up”, and the financial consensus behind it, and the continuity of the trend, are very different. And the mean slope is the thermometer that measures this "strength"。
The nature of the mean slope: not “no trend”, but “how strong a trend”
The core logic of the mean slope is to quantify “the average amount of change in unit time” — for example, the usual 20-day average, which is = ÷20 (the 20-day average today - the 20-day average 20-day average) and calculated as “the average variation in the daily average”。
To give an example: the average today is $100, 20 is $95, and the slope is (100-95) ÷20 = 0. 25/day; if it is $90 by 20, it is 0. 5. The former is “moderate”, while the latter is “strong” — you buy the former, with a 3 per cent return; and the latter, with a trend rate of over 10 per cent。
Quantitative logic of slopes: how to define “effective slopes”
Not all slopes have a trade value, but in my more than a decade of actual operations i have drawn up a set of “threshold standards” (using the 20-day average, for example):
Slash > 0. 3 yen/day (or 0. 3 per cent/day of the corresponding share price): moderate and numerous, with continuing trends
Staple > 0. 5 (or 0. 5 per cent/day): strong, clear financial consensus and high probability of acceleration
Slope <-0. 3 yuan/day: the trend is starting to weaken with moderate air
Slope <-0. 5 yen/day: strong empty head, disclaimer。
This threshold does not come from a head-shot — i took back 20-day mean data from 2010-2025 for a shares of 300 components: the probability of an increase in stock prices in the next 15 trading days was 68 per cent at an oblique > 0. 3 per cent/day; and at an oblique rate <-0. 3 per cent/day, the probability of a decrease was 72 per cent, which is the “general pattern” of market financial behaviour。
3. Why is one enough: redundancy of complex strategies
Many occupant prefers multiple lines of 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, 60 days, which are called “multi-cyclical resonance”, but are actually “redundant information interference” — multiple homogenous signals are either consistent (one is enough at this point) or contradictory (you have no idea how to operate at this point)。
I also used a combination of “5+20+60” earlier in the year, and later found that the direction of the other average lines was essentially synchronized as long as the average of 20 days was reached; conversely, if the average of 20 days was not in place, the gold fork on the other average was a “false signal”. Instead, a single line can help you to “cut off the noise and get to the core”。
Ii. “stable earnings” logic of the old stockholders: the three bottom pillars of the slope strategy
And one would ask, "on a slope, you really can make more than a decade?" in fact, “stable money” is not always earned, it is the result of the “long-term win + profit-loss ratio” — the slope strategy runs, because it strikes the bottom three patterns of the market。
1. Trends inertia: core assumptions for technical analysis
The essence of the market is the “consensus of finance” — when the average slope continues to be positive, indicating that more money is bought than sold per day, and that “incorporation” strengthens itself: higher increases will attract more funds to catch up, lowers the bottom of the money until the funds are depleted (turning back)。
This is the inertia of trends: the sharp slope corresponds to “strong consensus” and inertia is naturally stronger. When i made a new energy target in 2023, the average was 0. 6 per day, and stock prices increased by 21 per cent in the following 22 trading days — not so bad, but the financial inertia behind the slope。
Filter noise: the slope is "sign amplifier + noise filter"
80 per cent of a's time is in the shock market, and the remaining 20 per cent is in the trend market — the common mean gold fork is in the shock market at the rate of a “false breakthrough”: today, the gold fork is dead tomorrow, and it's hitting back and forth。
But the slope strategy filters the noise: in the shock market, the average slope is roughly around 0, below the threshold of >0. 3 per day, and the strategy automatically “scrambles”; it only enters when the slope breaks through the shock zone, and the slope rises rapidly above the threshold - this is equivalent to 80 per cent automatic avoidance of invalid transactions and only 20 per cent trend。
3. Balance of odds and odds: the margin-to-loss design of the tilt strategy
At the heart of “stable money” is “slow money, big money” - the profit-loss ratio of the tilt strategy is inherently superior:
(a) low cost of loss: when entering, i will position the loss at a “slash turn” position (e. G., after entry, the slope is less than 0. 1 per cent for two days in a row), at which time the rate of return on share prices is usually 2-3 per cent
(a) proximate space: as long as the slope remains above the threshold, it will continue to be held — in a strong slope pattern, where it will often reach 10-15 per cent
Counting: even if only 50 per cent wins, 12 per cent at a time and 3 per cent at a time, the expected gains (12 per cent x 0. 5 per cent) - (3 per cent x 0. 5 per cent = 4. 5 per cent) over the long term are the logic of “stable earnings”。
Iii. On-the-ground: a process-wide operating manual with an average slope
So many theories, and then there's the real-world step of "take it" — i'm taking the best "20 days mean slash strategy" to break down the whole process from the selection to the end。
The selection of cycles and horizons: a “20-day mean line” suitable for the family
Why the 20-day average
(a) less than 10 days: too sensitive and prone to solar fluctuations, such as a single day of stock rises and 10 days of average slopes surges, but possibly a day trip
(a) longer than 30 days: too late to achieve the 30-day average slope rate, which is already halfway through, without the main upswing
The 20-day mean line strikes the right balance between “short-line elasticity” and “medium-line trends” and is the best solution to the “sensitivity” and “stability” of the bulk balance。
Entry signals: “confirmation threshold” for slopes and entry times
It's not a "one-day slope." it's a "continuous goal." my standard is:
20-day mean slope 3 days per day
At the same time, the current stock price is above the 20-day average (validation is above trend)。
Three days in a row, the purpose of reaching the target was to avoid a false signal of “single-day variation”: for example, when a share rose one day because of good news, the slopes suddenly reached the target, but the next day it fell back and three days of compliance ensured that it was a “trend-start” rather than a “stimulation”。
Warehousing management: “dynamic gains and losses” tracking at slopes
During the hold-up, stock prices did not increase or fall, except for the 20-day average slope:
(a) holding conditions: the slope is maintained at 0. 2 per cent per day (slightly lower than the entry threshold, giving room for certain fluctuations in trends)
Proximate signal: 2 days in a row < 0. 2 per cent per day (reflecting a reduced trend)
Interrupted signal: tilt negative (reflecting trend reversal)。
For example, in 2024 i was a consumer unit:
Entry: 3 days in a row at 0. 35 per day at a share price of $100
(a) hold: the slope has been around 0. 4 per cent and the stock price has increased to $112
Surplus: the slope dropped to 0. 15 per cent for two days and the equity price was sold at $112 and earned 12 per cent。
The whole process does not have to look at the disk, it counts the slopes every day, and it is very suitable for the staff。
Case dismantling: a blue chipper strategy (2024. 3-2024. 6)
In the case of a 300-dimension unit (hereinafter referred to as “target a”), the effect of the slope strategy is as follows:
2024. 3. 10: 20 days mean slope of 0. 28 per day (not achieved)
2024. 3. 13: the slope is 0. 32 per day for three consecutive days, and the share price is $80
2024. 4. 20: an oblique rate of 0. 5 per cent per day and an equity price of 88 dollars (10 per cent)
2024. 5. 25: maintenance of an oblique rate of 0. 45/day and a stock price of $92 (15 per cent)
2024. 6. 10: a slope of 0. 18 per day for two days and a stock price of $93 to stop sales。
The final gain of 16. 25 per cent took three months — not to catch up and fall, but to follow the slope — to reap most of the profits of the trend。
Iv. “traps” of the slope strategy: three cognitive faults you must avoid
I can make a steady profit from this strategy for more than a decade, not because it's perfect, but because i've avoided its “trap” — any strategy has borders, and the slope strategy is no exception。
1. The higher the slope the better? Risk of over-execution
Many occupant see a slope of >0. 8 per day, and feel that they “go faster” and rush in — but the slope is too high, often the “end of the line”。
For example, in 2023, an ai-based unit had an oblique rate of 1. 2 per day, with five consecutive days of price hikes, but fell on the sixth day and the oblique rate went down directly — a 10 per cent loss on the same day for those who pursued it — this is the logic of “too high slopes — the end of the crossbow”。
My principle is that when the slope is >0. 8 per day, it is not sold; the slope is between 0. 3 and 0. 7 per cent, which is “a strong trend towards security”。
2. Single-cycle dependency: cyclical adaptability of different lines
The 20-day average is not a "one-size-fits-all cycle":
(a) cows: the trend is strong and sustained, and 20 days is fine
(a) seismic behaviour: short and highly volatile trend, 10-day average, with a gradient threshold of 0. 2 per cent
Bears: the trend is weak and falls fast, with a 30-day average and the slope threshold set at 0. 4 per cent per day (more stringent, avoiding premature copying)。
In bear city, for example, in 2022, i used a 30-day average tilt strategy, which only made two deals throughout the year, avoiding most of the decline and earning 8 per cent — the right time — to “adapt to different market environments”。
Neglecting fundamentals: slopes are "art" and fundamentals are "paths"
The slope is a “technical tool”, but the technological tool cannot be divorced from the basics - if a fundamental stock deteriorates (e. G., a continuous loss of performance, a reputational thunderstorm), even a higher slope may be a “primary pull”。
The criteria i've chosen are to look at the basics (5% increase in net profits over the last three years, <60% asset liability ratio) and to use the tilt strategy to find a point of purchase - • the basic face is a “security pad” and the slope is an “offensive tool”, so that the combination of the two can be truly “stable for profit”。
End
Over the course of more than a decade of market life, i've seen too many “complicated to see” strategies and tried too many “sounding beautiful” techniques, but in the end, it's the only thing that can be used all the time — it's not magical, it's even a bit awkward — but it's “logically clear, simple, long-term”。
The path to simplicity, rather than a “simplified strategy”, is “capturing the core”: the centre of the market is the trend, the centre of the trend is the intensity, and the centre of the intensity is the slope. You can also find your own “stable logic” in the market。
Note: equity markets are risky and investments need to be prudent. This article does not constitute any recommendation, only an exchange of discussions
